Wednesday, July 15, 2009

The Short Sale Conundrum

July 15, 2009

I looked up "conundrum" on google to be sure that the definition fit what is happening in the world of short sales. While the first definition was that a conundrum was a puzzle that usually included a pun, the second and third definitions seemed an appropriate description of what faces lenders, sellers and buyers in today's market.

A "conundrum" is a question or problem having only a conjectural answer; an intricate and difficult answer; a difficult choice or decision that must be made.

Surely these definitions fit short sales.

A lender must decide whether to agree to take less from a borrower than the borrower owes. The lender must decide how much less and whether the borrower is actually financially unable to make the payments on the loan. The latter determination is difficult because lenders often will not consider reducing the mortgage balance until the borrower fails to make the payments for several months. Ultimately, if the borrower fails to make payments and the property goes into default, the lender must then decide which nets the most from the non performing loan - a short sale or selling the property once the lender gets the property back though a foreclosure sale. on the surface, getting rid of the non performing asset sooner rather than later, especially in a declining market, seems like a no-brainer. However, from the length of time it takes a lender to make a short sale decision, there must be many other factors to consider - thus the "conundrum" e.e. the intricate and difficult problem.

For the seller who can no longer keep up the mortgage payments and for whom the balance of the mortgage is greater than the property's current market value, trying to "short sell" it and negotiating with the lender for a reduced pay-off seems a reasonable decision. Unfortunately, some sellers who put a property on the market as a "short sale' could make the payments but choose not to because the property is worth less than they owe. If a property owner must make a choice between letting the property go though a foreclosure action or selling it "short", the decision might be influenced by the impact of this decision on the seller's credit scores and the future ability to purchase another property. In both cases, the seller's credit has been affected. The question becomes is on effect worse than the other. Many financial advisers believe that the short sale may have less negative impact because the number of missed payments may be less. The short sale may more quickly put an end to the credit damage. In fact, one attorney expressed an opinion that a seller who sells with a reduced pay off demand should request that the loan be reported as "satisfied" rather than as a reduced pay-off.

For the buyer, a short sale is a conundrum because the wait for an approval from a lender has been extremely lengthy; it could be six month or more. Most buyers are faced with the problem of wanting to purchase a home now, not in six months plus the reality that the property may even have declined in value after they submit an offer. Another factor for the buyer is the not knowing whether the sale of property will be approved or whether it will just continue on the path to foreclosure.

As should be evident, short sales pose a true "conundrum".

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Kitchens Do Influence Buyers

July 14, 2009

Surveys still reveal that a kitchen remodel will give sellers a big bang for the bucks spent. However, not every seller can afford to replace all their cabinets, add new appliances and install a granite counter. While you might get 80+% of the costs of such a renovation when you sell your house, you might also not have the funds to spend on such a renovation.

Here is what a homeowner might do that would add some sparkle to a kitchen.

Over time, natural wood kitchen cupboards such as the oak and ash and birch cupboards that were used in the 1960s through the 1970s get to look very warn. Cooking vapors in the air and greasy residue attach to the wood and can make them look very grungy. Some cupboards in these time periods had no hardware handles or the hardware finish became dull through the constant use.

So......Remove all of the handles and knobs from both the cabinets and the drawers. Set the screws aside and put the hardware in the sink or in a basin filled with hot water and a few squirts of grease cutting dishwasher liquid. The soap will soak away the grime while you clean the cabinet surfaces.

As for the cabinets you can use a damp sponge with a dab of that grease-cutting dish washing liquid. Murphy's Oil soap can also be used to dampen your sponge. Using a new, clean and damp sponge, wipe the cabinet surfaces again to remove any of the soapy residue. Dry the surface with a lint-free micro fiber cloth and your finish should look as good as new.

It is also possible that your cupboards may need more than just a good cleaning and buffing. If the finish has worn away, it may be necessary to re lacquer or re varnish them. You might even consider painting them for a brighter and more contemporary look. However, before you apply any new finish make sure that the wood surface has been properly prepared. Proper preparation before resurfacing is vital for improving the look of tired cabinets.

When the cabinet surfaces are clean. reattach the hardware. At minimum cost, you will have given the kitchen a crisp and clean appearance. Crisp and clean should always be a sellers goal.

Monday, July 13, 2009

Mid Year Median Prices

July 13, 2009

Here are the median prices for the first six months of the years 2009 back to 2002. They follow a pattern that seems to occur in every real estate cycle. Prices rise, then spike for approximately eighteen months to three years and then fall rather sharply. It is amazing to me in the almost thirty years that I have been tracking real estate prices, that even though causes of the spike and then the decline may differ, the pattern is consistent.

Add three zeros (000) to the prices quoted.

Banning Beaumont.......2009/175.....2008/242......2007/300......2006/325......2005/320

........................................2004/195.....2003/145......2002/125

Bloomington..................2009/135.....2008/223......2007/387......2006/370......2005/367

........................................2004/227.....2003/160......2002/136

Colton.............................2009/120.....2008/217......2007/335......2006/334......2005/330

........................................2004/188......2003/145.....2002/118

Fontana.........................2009/200.....2008/309.....2007/420......2006/415......2005/431

.......................................2004/271.......2003/196.....2002/165

Grand Terrace............2009/195.......2008/280.....2007/380......2006/383......2005/380

......................................2004/278.......2003/211......2002/152

Highland......................2009/150.......2008/267......2007/379......2006/365......2005/317

......................................2004/235.......2003/185......2002/156

Loma Linda.................2009/250.......2008/335.....2007/417......2006/395......2005/399

......................................2004/300.......2003/225.....2002/172

Mentone......................2009/115........2008/329.....2007/300....2006/335.......2005/269

......................................2004/195.......2003/153......2002/134

Moreno Valley............2009/137.......2008/225......2007/380.....2006/375.......2005/374

......................................2004/251.......2003/180......2002/149

Redlands......................2009/225......2008/323......2007/400.....2006/393......2005/421

......................................2004/299......2003/220......2002/198

Rialto............................2009/144......2008/230......2007/375......2006/379......2005/385

......................................2004/240......2003/180......2002/145

Riverside.....................2009/174.......2008/285......2007/402.....2006/416.......2005/417

......................................2004/299......2003/212......2002/182

San Bernardino...........2009/80........2008/184......2007/310......2006/307......2005/255

.......................................2004/175......2003/125......2002/107

Yucaipa/Calimesa.......2009/212......2008/285......2007/370.....2006/374......2005/390

.......................................2004/262......2003/190......2002/159



Remember. Median Prices just show where the transactions are taking place. They do not show what might be the value of any particular piece of property. Medians are where half of the transactions were higher and half were lower.

Friday, July 10, 2009

Summer Events Are Everywhere

July 10, 2009

The Redlands Theatre Festival begins its summer season this evening with "A Little Shop of Horrors" at 8:30 this evening followed Saturday with "Mid-Life! The Crisis Musical" I.m told by some members of the troupe that it is a lot of fun. Tickets are $18. for more info go to http://www.rtfseason.org/ or call 909-792-0562.

Opening this weekend at the Museum of History and Art in Ontario is a special exhibit featuring the cartoons of Charles Schultz. (if you were not aware, Charles Schultz at one time lived in Needles and had a real dog named Spike. This exhibit focuses on his great creation, the beagle Snoopy. The name of the exhibit is "Snoopy as the World War I Flying Ace" and features more than 40 cartoons and photos of the cartoonist at work. Admission is free. For more info call 909-395-2510.

From 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. at Sylvan Park in Redlands the Optimist Club will hold their annual chili cook-off and car show. The Optimist Club says that there will be "hundreds of mechanical masterpieces" on view along with 30 homemade chili's to taste. A $3 donation for adults and $2 for children 12 and under is requested. All proceeds go toward nine local youth programs. For more info go to http://www.redlands-events.com/ or call 909-792-1238.

There will be two events at the Redlands Bowl this weekend. Tonight at 8:15 p.m.Cody Bryant and the Western Sage will perform Western classics. Then Saturday the Navy Band Southwest will present a concert of traditional band music. http://www.redlandsbowl.org/ or 909-382-2780

In Temecula the Temecula Valley International Jazz Festival will be held from tonight through Sunday. moreinfo at http://www.temeculajazzfest.com/ or call 951-678-2517.

This is just a sampling as the inland Empire is clearly a happening place.

Thursday, July 09, 2009

"You Are So Beautiful"

July 9, 2009

The San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains are "out". It is difficult for me to believe that this is the month of July. The view of the mountains more resembles the month of November when they are before us in all their "purple mountain majesty".

I can remember when we moved to Redlands in July of 1967. The real estate agent would talk about "view property" and how special it was. For us, having grown up in the flat lands of Ohio, we really could not picture what a mountain view might be like. Quite frankly, in 1967 we did not see the mountains until after Labor Day in September. Then we knew. I wrote to my friends in Ohio: "This must be the most beautiful place in the world." And when the mountains are in full view, the real estate clients being transferred to this area seem to agree.

This morning was clear and bright and as I drove to work the mountains were "out". You could see clear down to the tip of the San Gabriels and to Mt. San Jacinto looming over Palm Springs.

It was interesting to me to see a headline article in the Riverside Press Enterprise that announced we have had fewer smoggy days than in the past two years. Perhaps all our emission control regulations have had an effect. For whatever reasons we can certainly echo a number of musical refrains to describe the beauty of Southern California's Inland Empire.

"You Are So Beautiful"

"On a Clear Day You Can See Forever"

"...the purple mountains majesty" and so on.

Wednesday, July 08, 2009

A Look at 2009 January to June Transactions

July 8, 2009

It has been interesting to me to follow the numbers for closed real estate transactions reported through the IMRMLS for 14 different communities in the Inland Empire. When I began tracking sales in 2007, my hope was that the numbers would reflect when, or if, a bottom in the market decline had been reached. To the extent that volume is an indicator, the number of sales have clearly increased. The number that is probably necessary for determining a true change in the market direction is the median price of properties sold. Up until now, it has continued to decline.

In addition to the total number of units reported sold through the IMRMLS, I am including the number of those transactions reported a selling price over $400,000 as the upper end of the market has yet to recover.

Banning/Beaumont.......2009/744.......2008/469........2007/351........2006/530........2005/529

.........................................2004/514.......2003/411.........2002/245

Over $400,000.............2009/4...........2008/19...........2007/46..........2006/103........2005/40

.........................................2004/26.........2003/4.............2002/3

Bloomington...................2009/197.......2008/51...........2007/45..........2006/138........2005/118

.........................................2004/110.......2002/131.........2002/76

Over $400,000.............2009/0...........2008/3.............2007/12.........2006/44...........2005/12

.........................................2004/0...........2003/1.............2002/0

Colton..............................2009/376.......2008/124........2007/138.......2006/299.........2005/266

.........................................2004/199.......2003/269........2002/151

Over $400,000.............2009/2...........2008/7.............2007/22.........2006/40...........2005/11

.........................................2004/5...........2003/2.............2002/0

Fontana..........................2009/2156.....2008/827.........2007/660......2006/1359.......2005/1541

........................................2004/1236.....2003/1295.......2002/839

Over $400,000............2009/16..........2008/79...........2007/377.......2006/738.........2005/479

........................................2004/121........2003/3.............2002/0

Grand Terrace..............2009/54.........2008/40...........2007/35........2006/54...........2005/50

........................................2004/49.........2003/45...........2002/30

Over $400,000............2009/1............2008/1.............2007/15........2006/21............2005/9

........................................2004/2............2003/1.............2002/1

Highland........................2009/375........2008/188........2007/200.....2006/362.........2005/414

........................................2004/347........2003/408.......2002/231

Over $400,000............2009/18..........2008/24..........2007/73........2006/116.........2005/99

........................................2004/32..........2003/11..........2002/2

Loma Linda...................2009/72..........2008/64..........2007/75........2006/86..........2005/87

........................................2004/74..........2003/75..........2002/43

Over $400,000............2009/8............2008/14..........2007/42.......2006/42...........2005/32

........................................2004/17..........2003/6............2002/0

Mentone........................2009/53..........2008/46.........2007/32.......2006/48...........2005/49

........................................2004/46..........2003/33.........2002/30

Over $400,000............2009/0............2008/13.........2007/7.........2006/8.............2005/5

........................................2004/0............2003/0...........2002/0

Moreno Valley..............2009/2497......2008/1204.....2007/620...2006/1681.......2005/1437

........................................2004/1437......2003/1287......2002/935

Over $400,000............2009/3............2008/21..........2007/170....2006/551........2005/223

........................................2004/36..........2003/5............2002/1

Redlands........................2009/306.......2008/242........2007/313....2006/381.......2005/465

........................................2004/430.......2003/437........2002/272

Over $400,000............2009/45.........2008/76...........2007/157....2006/178........2005/163

........................................2004/101.......2003/61...........2002/24

Rialto..............................2009/871.......2008/309........2007/266....2006/601.......2005/681

........................................2004/600......2003/625........2002/407

Over $400,000............2009/0...........2008/2............2007/78.......2006/179........2005/63

........................................2004/1...........2003/0............2002/0

Riverside.......................2009/2892.....2008/1476.....2007/1388...2006/2377......2005/2420

........................................2004/2183.....2003/2098....2002/1447

Over $400,000............2009/142.......2008/270.......2007/716.....2006/1376.......2005/871

........................................2004/446.......2003/88.........2002/37

San Bernardino............2009/1979......2008/700.......2007/668.....2006/1358......2005/1261

.......................................2004/1282......2003/1346.....2002/825

Over $400,000...........2009/4............2008/18..........2007/91.......2006/126........2005/49

.......................................2004/11..........2003/8............2002/1

Yucaipa/Calimesa.......2009/308.......2008/263........2007/265.....2006/345.......2005/395

.......................................2004/406.......2003/362........2002/243

Over $400,000...........2009/22.........2008/40..........2007/112......2006/126.......2005/103

.......................................2002/51.........2003/18..........2002/8

There you have it. During the peak year of 2005. the price of homes had risen significantly which led to the increase of sales over $400,000. As you can see, that price point has yet to return. What is driving the present market are home being sold under $300,000.

Tuesday, July 07, 2009

Closed Sales as Reported through the IMRMLS on July 7, 2009

July 7, 2009

Here are the numbers for closed sales in the month of June in the years 2002-2009. These numbers are interesting to track as they rather clearly indicate the trend of this particular real estate cycle.

Banning Beaumont.......2009/134.......2008/103.......2007/67........2006/131.......2005/97

........................................2004/102.......2003/89.........2002/67

Bloomington..................2009/42.........2008/15.........2007/10........2006/23.........2005/27

........................................2004/22.........2003/19.........2002/17

Colton.............................2009/71.........2008/33.........2007/21........2006/66.........2005/59

........................................2004/29.........2003/57.........2002/44

Fontana..........................2009/369......2008/247.......2007/98........2006/244.......2005/312

........................................2004/237.......2003/224.......2002/223

Grand Terrace..............2009/14.........2008/12.........2007/8..........2006/11..........2005/11

........................................2004/4...........2003/9...........2002/9

Highland........................2009/64.........2008/43.........2007/23........2006/65.........2005/73

........................................2004/60.........2003/70........2002/60

Loma Linda...................2009/14.........2008/14.........2007/11........2006/20.........2005/19

........................................2004/13.........2003/18.........2002/7

Mentone........................2009/16.........2008/7...........2007/3..........2006/9...........2005/12

........................................2004/11.........2003/11.........2002/7

Moreno Valley..............2009/403......2008/307......2007/103......2006/299.......2005/351

........................................2004/254......2003/209......2002/277

Redlands........................2009/53........2008/48........2007/58........2006/79..........2005/84

........................................2004/88........2003/82........2002/74

Rialto..............................2009/168......2008/73........2007/34........2006/116........2005/116

........................................2004/123......2003/119......2002/124

Riverside.......................2009/562......2008/388......2007/235.....2006/419........2005/490

........................................2004/436......2003/392......2002/412

San Bernardino.............2009/336......2008/174......2007/102.....2006/231........2005/247

........................................2004/242......2003/233......2002/232

Yucaipa/Calimesa........2009/47.........2008/54........2007/54.......2006/77..........2005/81

........................................2004/74.........2003/81........2002/59



Some observations. For the most part these numbers do not include sales of new construction. In 2009, there are some listings of builders unsold inventory.

Smaller communities such as Loma Linda and Grand Terrace show a remarkable consistency in the number of transactions.

Of the 14 communities that I track only 4 had fewer closed sales in June of 2009. The larger communities such as Fontana, Moreno Valley, Riverside and San Bernardino all had significantly higher closed transactions than in any previous year.

It will be interesting to see if these trends continue.