Assessing the Real Estate Market
May 15, 2012
The Wall Street Journal in yesterday's edition had a section entitled "Squaring Off on Personal Finance". One of the featured articles had to do with the housing market; namely to buy or not to buy now.
The article had opposing points of views written by Eric Lascelles (for buying now) and A. Gary Schillling (for not buying now). Mr Schilling is well known in the real estate data field and is often quoted. Mr. Lascelles is a chief economist at money management firm RBC Global Asset Management.
As I prepared my monthly report of the properties on the market for sale and in escrow, I was struck by Mr. Schilling's position that the excess inventory will continue to impact prices and that prices still have a ways to go before hitting bottom. If you read the numbers I posted yesterday for the fourteen communities that I track in Inland Southern California, you might, as I do, question where the excess inventory is hiding.
Mr. Lascelles, while believing that the U.S. housing market is several years from "normalcy", clearly argues that this is "the mother of all buyer's markets, and won't last forever". He cites the fact that affordability is the best that it has been in thirty years due to the 34% decline in prices and the 4% average rate for a thirty year mortgage.
It will be interesting to see how potential buyers and sellers react to the differing opinions. As my numbers show, we could use a lot more inventory. Even if buyers want to ppurchase a home, their choices have become limited. We can hope that some of the surplus inventory will come on the market to fulfill the increasing desire of folks to take advantage of the present affordability of home buying.
The Wall Street Journal in yesterday's edition had a section entitled "Squaring Off on Personal Finance". One of the featured articles had to do with the housing market; namely to buy or not to buy now.
The article had opposing points of views written by Eric Lascelles (for buying now) and A. Gary Schillling (for not buying now). Mr Schilling is well known in the real estate data field and is often quoted. Mr. Lascelles is a chief economist at money management firm RBC Global Asset Management.
As I prepared my monthly report of the properties on the market for sale and in escrow, I was struck by Mr. Schilling's position that the excess inventory will continue to impact prices and that prices still have a ways to go before hitting bottom. If you read the numbers I posted yesterday for the fourteen communities that I track in Inland Southern California, you might, as I do, question where the excess inventory is hiding.
Mr. Lascelles, while believing that the U.S. housing market is several years from "normalcy", clearly argues that this is "the mother of all buyer's markets, and won't last forever". He cites the fact that affordability is the best that it has been in thirty years due to the 34% decline in prices and the 4% average rate for a thirty year mortgage.
It will be interesting to see how potential buyers and sellers react to the differing opinions. As my numbers show, we could use a lot more inventory. Even if buyers want to ppurchase a home, their choices have become limited. We can hope that some of the surplus inventory will come on the market to fulfill the increasing desire of folks to take advantage of the present affordability of home buying.
posted by shirley harry at 8:05 AM
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