Speaking of Bumpy Rides....
August 15, 2011
If you watched the stock markets last week, you were not watching a bumpy ride, you were watching a roller coaster ride. If you watch my blog posts with median prices and units sold, you see a bumpy ride. Back between 2007 and 2009 you probably saw the steep fall of the roller coaster ride. Real estate, unlike stocks, historically does not fall steeply and then rise steeply. Real estate, when it experiences a steep decline in value, takes several years to find its bottom and to begin its recovery.
Where are we now? Zillow posted that we are experience a bumpy bottom with a true bottom in 2012. 24/7 Wall St feels that we will experience more declines, and even steep declines in some regions. 15.6% in the Riverside San Bernardino region.
I can only comment that the median prices and the volume of units being sold seem to reflect a fairly narrow trading range and perhaps even a bottom. Since the market collapse in 2007 and 2008, I have held the position that we will not see any uptick in value until late 2012. After that we should see some steady value increases and by 2016, we should again experience some serious appreciation. My prediction is based on past history. It will be interesting to see if all the changes in the packaging of mortgages and in the global financial markets influence our local real estate history. I remain optimistic that history will prevail.
If you watched the stock markets last week, you were not watching a bumpy ride, you were watching a roller coaster ride. If you watch my blog posts with median prices and units sold, you see a bumpy ride. Back between 2007 and 2009 you probably saw the steep fall of the roller coaster ride. Real estate, unlike stocks, historically does not fall steeply and then rise steeply. Real estate, when it experiences a steep decline in value, takes several years to find its bottom and to begin its recovery.
Where are we now? Zillow posted that we are experience a bumpy bottom with a true bottom in 2012. 24/7 Wall St feels that we will experience more declines, and even steep declines in some regions. 15.6% in the Riverside San Bernardino region.
I can only comment that the median prices and the volume of units being sold seem to reflect a fairly narrow trading range and perhaps even a bottom. Since the market collapse in 2007 and 2008, I have held the position that we will not see any uptick in value until late 2012. After that we should see some steady value increases and by 2016, we should again experience some serious appreciation. My prediction is based on past history. It will be interesting to see if all the changes in the packaging of mortgages and in the global financial markets influence our local real estate history. I remain optimistic that history will prevail.
posted by shirley harry at 9:00 AM
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